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Stock Market Outlook

The Asset Class Outlook May Return in 2011

Our most recent market commentary can be found in Short Takes, a blog that is updated every business day.

Publication of the Asset Class Outlook may resume sometime in 2011. At CCM in 2010, we focused our efforts on client accounts and amending some of our market models to better accommodate high levels of volatility. We created and refined the CCM Bull Market Sustainability Index (CCM BMSI) and the CCM 80-20 Correction Index (CCM 80-20 CI). These new tools may be used in future issues of the Asset Class Outlook. We appreciate your patience and support as we perform detailed research to better serve investors in the future.

The November edition of Ciovacco Capital Management's Asset Class Outlook is available in PDF format via the link below.

Page 15 of the Asset Class Outlook covers "Monitoring The Health Of The Bull - Red Flags", which acknowledges the risks associated with blind investments in the current environment. Many problems remain. While markets are still bullish, recent cracks tell us to keep a close eye on our investments.

The Asset Class Update below should be used in concert with the November Asset Class Outlook. The Update covers some possible forms of overhead resistance for the S&P 500, including the 500-day moving average.

May take a few moments Asset Class Update - 500 Day MA - Download PDF Version

May take a few moments Asset Class Outlook - November 2009 - Download PDF Version

Included in the November issue of the Asset Class Outlook:

  • Short-term bull market corrections
  • Longer-term bull market corrections
  • Similarities between 2003 and 2009
  • Asset class rankings
  • S&P 500 trends and support
  • Favored asset classes
  • Monthly charts have room to run
  • Stocks do well after recessions (update)
  • 200-day turn study (update)
  • Bull market big picture
  • Monitoring the health of the bull
  • Low volume rallies
  • 22-Week MAs important

Previous Issues

May take a few moments Asset Class Outlook - Sep/Oct 2009 - Download PDF Version

Included in the September/October issue of the Asset Class Outlook:

  • Stock market performance following recessions
  • Buy-and-hold investors are still way down
  • 1937-38 was much worse than present day
  • Major correction may not come until 2010
  • Stocks can go up in a banking crisis
  • 1974-75 and 2000-2002 say current rally is real
  • Bond market not a major concern
  • Further dollar weakness likely
  • 1980s double-dip does not compare well to 2009
  • Gold bullish, but not wildly so
  • Market breadth supports bull
  • Unemployment and stocks
  • "Valuations are the highest since..."
  • Current bull leadership
  • Shipping index can give false signals
  • Fall stock swoon far from certain
  • Technicals still favorable
  • Favored asset classes 2009-2010
  • Other voices

The August edition of Ciovacco Capital Management's Asset Class Outlook is available in PDF format via the link below. It may take a few moments to download.

May take a few moments Asset Class Outlook - Download PDF Version

Included in this month's Asset Class Outlook:

  • Bull market transition studies (1929-2009)
  • Evidence supporting the recession's end
  • Favored asset classes at market turns
  • Monitoring the health of the bull
  • Currencies support new bull market
  • 2003 and 2009 similarities
  • Using emerging markets and the dollar to monitor the bull's health
  • Corrections and countertrend rallies
  • Beware of "overbought" as a reason not to buy
  • Similarities to 1970s
  • Volume is not a show-stopper
  • Other voices

Above are excerpts taken from issues of Ciovacco Capital Management's Asset Class Outlook, which is available for download on this web page. The comments above and those in the outlook are intended for CCM clients, and thus investments or strategies described may be inappropriate for some investors based on their own individual situation and risk tolerance. Downloading the Asset Class Outlook constitutes your acceptance of the terms below and acknowledgement of the risk disclosures presented on this web page and within the Asset Class Outlook.

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All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. The information contained herein (including historical prices or values) has been obtained from sources that Ciovacco Capital Management (CCM) considers to be reliable; however, CCM makes any representation as to, or accepts any responsibility or liability for, the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein or any decision made or action taken by you or any third party in reliance upon the data. Some results are derived using historical estimations from available data. Investment recommendations may change and readers are urged to check with tax advisors before making any investment decisions. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. This memorandum is based on information available to the public. No representation is made that it is accurate or complete. This memorandum is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. The investments discussed or recommended in this report may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial position. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. The price or value of the investments to which this report relates, either directly or indirectly, may fall or rise against the interest of investors. All prices and yields contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This information is based on hypothetical assumptions and is intended for illustrative purposes only. PAST PERFORMANCE DOES NOT GUARANTEE FUTURE RESULTS.