In the main article, we showed our concerns with the relative strength and price trends of transportation stocks. A similar situation exists in the charts of technology software & services stocks. The good news is a favorable relative strength trend versus the general stock market.


Software & Services Stocks - Relative Strength (1989-2008)

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The bad news is weak trends in the price of the stocks. Notice the firm break of the uptrend from 1991 to 2007 in these software and services stocks (see below). Theses charts tell us even the stocks of “stronger” industry groups are falling in price. The “stronger” stocks are simply losing less than the “weaker” stocks.


Software & Services Stocks - Price (1989-2008)

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You would expect the charts to be weak in a devastating bear market, but you would also expect to see some improvement as the market turns. The following industry groups all have respectable relative strength, but negative price trends.


Food, Beverage & Tobacco: Good News – Relative Strength Trend

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Food, Beverage & Tobacco: Bad News – Price Trend

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Food & Drug Retailing: Good News – Relative Strength Trend

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Food & Drug Retailing: Bad News – Price Trend

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Household & Personal Products: Good News – Relative Strength Trend

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Household & Personal Products: Bad News – Price Trend

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Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure: Good News – Relative Strength Trend

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Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure: Bad News – Price Trend

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Pharmaceutical & Biotechnology: Good News – Relative Strength Trend

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Pharmaceutical & Biotechnology: Bad News – Price Trend

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Utilities: Good News – Relative Strength Trend

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Utilities: Bad News – Price Trend

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Technology Hardware & Equipment: Good News – Relative Strength Trend

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Technology Hardware & Equipment: Bad News – Price Trend

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Moderately Good News and Bad News

The following industry groups have a mixed bag in terms of relative strength. Unfortunately, we see nothing to get excited about in terms of price action. Banks have shown some improvement in relative strength, but no decisive breakout to the upside.


Banks: Relative Strength Trend

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Share prices of banks continue to suffer.


Banks: Price Trend

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Energy stocks have managed to stay within a basic upward sloping trend channel in terms of relative strength.


Energy: Relative Strength Trend

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The story in terms of price for energy stocks remains concerning. The trend remains firmly down and includes the potential for more downside.


Energy: Price Trend

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Commercial Services & Supplies: Moderately Good News - Relative Strength (in 2008)

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Commercial Services & Supplies: Bad News – Price Trend

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Retailing: Moderately Good News - Relative Strength (in 2008)

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Retailing: Bad News – Price Trend

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The Bad News and The Bad News

Automobiles, financials, capital goods, insurance, consumer durables, and materials all have negative relative strength trends and negative price trends. From an economic standpoint, weakness in these industry groups is not bullish for the general stock market.


Automobiles: Bad News - Relative Strength Trends

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Automobiles: Bad News – Price Trends

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Financials: Bad News - Relative Strength Trends

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Financials: Bad News – Price Trends

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Capital Goods: Bad News - Relative Strength Trends

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Capital Goods: Bad News – Price Trends

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Insurance: Bad News - Relative Strength Trends

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Insurance: Bad News – Price Trends

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Consumer Durables: Bad News - Relative Strength Trends

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Consumer Durables: Bad News – Price Trends

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Materials: Bad News - Relative Strength Trends

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Materials: Bad News – Price Trends

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All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. The information contained herein (including historical prices or values) has been obtained from sources that Ciovacco Capital Management (CCM) considers to be reliable; however, CCM makes any representation as to, or accepts any responsibility or liability for, the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein or any decision made or action taken by you or any third party in reliance upon the data. Some results are derived using historical estimations from available data. Investment recommendations may change and readers are urged to check with tax advisors before making any investment decisions. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. This memorandum is based on information available to the public. No representation is made that it is accurate or complete. This memorandum is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. The investments discussed or recommended in this report may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial position. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. The price or value of the investments to which this report relates, either directly or indirectly, may fall or rise against the interest of investors. All prices and yields contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This information is based on hypothetical assumptions and is intended for illustrative purposes only. PAST PERFORMANCE DOES NOT GUARANTEE FUTURE RESULTS.