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The CCM Bull Market Sustainability Index
A Submodel Feeding Into Master Model
The master CCM Market Model uses input from five submodels to leverage the benefits of approach/method diversification. One of the submodels, the CCM Bull Market Sustainability Index (BMSI), is an objective scoring system that helps the master CCM Market Model probabilistically discern between a correction in a bull market and the possible onset of a new bear market.
Discerning between normal market volatility and volatility that may lead to a new bear market is a difficult task. Selling to protect principal just prior to the end of a market correction can be extremely frustrating. Conversely, blindly holding your ground as a bear market eats away at your portfolio is less than desirable.
CCM BMSI Data Sets And ProcessThe logic flow of the chart below is from left to right and from top to bottom.
Additional comments can be found in Short Takes.
Chris Ciovacco is the Chief Investment Officer for Ciovacco Capital Management, LLC. More on the web at www.ciovaccocapital.com