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"Experienced people try to stay away from the NFP for the most part," said Chris Ciovacco, CEO of Atlanta-based Ciovacco Capital Management, referring to the nonfarm payroll figure. "It's not unusual for traders to say, I want to come into this report flat. Meanwhile, if you're an investor, you try to just look away."

CNBC


"We need the market to correct for just long enough that we all will believe it might never go up again," says Chris Ciovacco of Ciovacco Capital Management.
Ciovacco advises respect for outlier scenarios in current conditions, considering that the market has broken above its previous ceiling.
Ciovacco takes a different tack. "The Fed will never unwind its purchases, except to let the bonds mature, and most smart Fedwatchers know that," he says.

Fund Strategy


“From a demand standpoint, buyers are coming in where you would imagine, at the lower end of the channel. But sellers, on the supply side, are appearing sooner than expected, rather than waiting for prices to rise to the top of the channel,” says Chris Ciovacco, chief investment officer at Ciovacco Capital Management.

Financial Times


"As Pimco’s Bill Gross wrote in his January Investment Outlook, “it’s as if the earth has two moons instead of one”. The new bimodal world comprises two alternative directions, of either continued delevering and contraction – think Japanisation – or higher inflation triggered by the splish-splash of liquidity.

"That is where equity and commodity investors have their work cut out. Chris Ciovacco, an independent money manager in Atlanta, predicts an ongoing series of meltups and meltdowns, the lengths of which will get shorter and shorter. Sentiment will “flip on a dime”, he says, so investors must be exceptionally nimble. That means a buy-and-hold strategy is less likely to pan out. Although it is more comfortable to settle into a two-to-three year horizon, two-to-three months will be a more pertinent time frame."

"Ciovacco has a prescription for dealing with such volatility. Do not construct a portfolio for either a bull or bear environment, going all in to reflect one scenario. Instead, blend the two approaches by overweighting one side or other, according to the “risk on” or “risk off” flavour of the market."

FundWeb


"There is long-term concern about the health of U.S. and its ability to pay back debt," said Chris Ciovacco, a money manager and head of Ciovacco Capital Management in Atlanta. Ciovacco makes his case thusly: U.S. debt has skyrocketed in recent years and will only continue to grow as entitlements such as Medicaid and Social Security require more and more money to fulfill their obligations. Mounting numbers of retiring baby boomers will only exacerbate this problem. In addition, there is a huge trade imbalance as the U.S. increasingly imports more than it exports, and a currency imbalance as the U.S. borrows money from foreign governments to keep all its parts moving properly. As all of these imbalances grow, hastened by an ever-weakening dollar, foreign investors are starting to question "the full faith and credit of the U.S. government," said Ciovacco. "There's a loss of confidence on the part of investors concerning the long-term viability of the U.S. to make everything balance," Ciovacco said, adding that the recent economic downturn has pushed these concerns to the forefront. All of this is likely pointing to a fundamental shift in global economic power. One day in the not so distant future, the speculation goes, the U.S. dollar will not be the world's reserve currency. It happened to the British pound and it will happen to the U.S. dollar. That means Treasury Bonds might no longer serve as the first safe haven of choice. Ciovacco, sounding eerily like Cassandra, explained: "If you understand the secular trends, which include a declining dollar, the long-term economic shift of power from developed to emerging economies, and loose monetary policy, it tells you U.S. Treasury bonds in the long run are the wrong place to be."

FOX Business News


But let's ignore for the moment the specific economic dynamics of each era; war, widespread unemployment, recession, whatever and focus instead on the single common denominator: uncertainty. "What's causing the current problem is basically one word, uncertainty," said Chris Ciovacco, a money manager with Ciovacco Capital Management in Atlanta.

FOX Business News


For the moment, Mr Ciovacco issues a caution against reading too much into the chart. “In the current market, bears are looking to support their case with a wedge, which is so easy to find and identify. Until the trend is actually confirmed, by violating the lower channel, it is still only a set up.”

Financial Times


Similarly, once the big banks identify how much bad debt is on their books, the financial sector can declare a bottom and the stock market will undoubtedly get a boost. But at the moment, no one knows when that will happen. Meanwhile, Ciovacco has a strategy for these uncertain times. Investors should be paying attention to short-term market dynamics and moving their money "incrementally" based on recent stock market developments. "If you keep seeing negative signs on your monthly statements, continue to make small incremental moves away from the pain," he said. "If and when this turns around, then do the same thing in reverse -- start incrementally putting risk back into your portfolio." And another thing. Forget about long-term forecasts. No one knows when the current storm is going to pass, according to Ciovacco. "Take the forecast and throw it in the trash bin," he said. "Pay attention to what's happening now and you won't go too far wrong."

FOX Business News


The short-term picture has seen not only a rally by the U.S. dollar but also interest rates going up around the world. That has led to underperformance lately by emerging-market bonds, points out Atlanta-based money manager Chris Ciovacco. "Over the next several months, fears over central banks continuing to bump up rates could still definitely hurt foreign bond markets," Ciovacco said. "There's also a very good argument that could be made for a stronger dollar through summer." But he says the slump is temporary. Ciovacco, who runs private accounts for both individual and institutional investors, views falling bond prices in emerging markets as a buying opportunity. He favors funds invested in government debt from Russia, Brazil, New Zealand and Malaysia.

MarketWatch.com


From Chris Ciovacco, Atlanta Money Manager, "In the financial press, the appeal of gold is often portrayed as a way to protect yourself from "end-of-the-world" events. The press tells us that people buy gold because they are fearful. There is no question that there is some truth to that concept. However, I would argue that the real appeal of gold is that it enables you to protect yourself from constant money creation which erodes the purchasing power of paper currencies. The U.S. dollar, as measured vs. a basket of foreign currencies via the U.S. Dollar Index, has lost roughly 30% of its purchasing power since July of 2001. The endless creation of credit and the dollar's decline has not gone unnoticed by many investors. These investors have flocked to gold."

DollarCollapse.com


Anyone concerned with commonly used economic barometers -- such as stock price to earnings ratios and market valuations -- should steer clear of Chinese stocks at the moment, Merk said. On the other hand, it would be foolish to ignore China as a long-term investment. "It's a story you have to know as an investor," said Chris Ciovacco, a money manager with Ciovacco Capital Management in Atlanta. "They have to look at it. They have no choice." Ciovacco recommended China be approached broadly as "an emerging market play to capitalize on any country that can capitalize on China's vast growth." Russia is such an example, or any other country that sells oil to China, he said.

FOX Business News


According to Chris Ciovacco, CIO for Ciovacco Capital Management, "For those of you that did not have gold on your radar, the trailing five-year average annual return for precious metals funds is 35.08%. That sounds like a pretty good investment to me when the objective is to make money." "I don't really care which asset classes are making money. My goal is to ride the long-term winners and cut back on the long-term losers based on all the fundamental and technical information that is available."

Gold Letter


Financial planners who have invested their clients' hard earned cash in these historically reliable funds are urging calm. Chris Ciovacco, an investment manager with Ciovacco Capital Management in Atlanta, said he has yet to advise a client to flee money market funds. "I, as a money manager, have changed nothing," he said. In the 40-year history of money market funds, only one has ever had to be liquidated due to losses, Ciovacco said, and in that case investors got back 96 cents for every dollar they invested.

FOX Business News


According to Chris Ciovacco, of Ciovacco Capital Management, "If we use gold as an example, an investor who had a small exposure to gold (even as low as 1%) would have been one of the first to notice and profit from the gains in early 2001." "It is human nature to defend the asset classes that are in your portfolio and dismiss the ones that are not. How many people told themselves "gold is not a good investment" as it moved higher while they remained on the sidelines."

Goldseek.com


Ciovacco, meanwhile, strongly recommended emerging market mutual funds or ETFs that includes either a sprinkling of Chinese companies or companies that stand to benefit from China's growth. Commodity funds and ETFs, specifically ones with a heavy focus on oil, are also a good bet, he said, given China's growing strength as an industrial power. "The growth portion of an investor's portfolio has to recognize the major shift of economic power that is taking place from the developed world to China and other emerging market economies," Ciovacco said.

FOX Business News


Advisers worried about investments that are supposed to be their clients' safest holdings said that the time has come for closer scrutiny. "Unfortunately, I think the petition requesting the SEC more closely monitor money market funds is a good idea," said Chris Ciovacco, chief investment officer of Ciovacco Capital Management LLC in Atlanta. "For the most part, I would be against government oversight," Mr. Ciovacco said. "But in this case, based on what we've seen and the arena that we have with structured-investment vehicles and derivatives, the money market fund industry looks a little bit different than it did a few years back. Maybe some changes in oversight are warranted."

Investment News


The following is some interesting analysis reproduced courtesy of Chris Ciovacco, Registered Investment Advisor, Ciovacco Capital Management, LLC (www.ciovaccocapital.com - visit their site for an outstanding slide show far superior to the bits and pieces I've chosen to present below), based upon historical data courtesy of Charlie Minter, Comstock Partners. Looking at 75 years of market history, the average Price/Earnings ratio for the S&P 500 for the last nine major market tops (excluding 2000's) was 18.55. The average PE ratio for the S&P 500 for the last nine major market bottoms (excluding 2002's) was 9.39. That gives us a mean PE of 13.97. PEs above the mean indicate markets are at risk of decline. PEs below the mean indicate equities are poised to rally. What do you think the PE ratio was at the so-called Bear market bottom in October 2002? Answer, a historically ridiculous 28. Does that sound like a Bear market bottom to you? Earnings grew substantially since October 2002, however the PE ratio as of December 29th, 2004 was still an outlier 20.15.

TechnicalIndicatorIndex.com


Similarly, once the big banks identify how much bad debt is on their books, the financial sector can declare a bottom and the stock market will undoubtedly get a boost. But at the moment, no one knows when that will happen. Meanwhile, Ciovacco has a strategy for these uncertain times. Investors should be paying attention to short-term market dynamics and moving their money "incrementally" based on recent stock market developments. "If you keep seeing negative signs on your monthly statements, continue to make small incremental moves away from the pain," he said. "If and when this turns around, then do the same thing in reverse -- start incrementally putting risk back into your portfolio." And another thing. Forget about long-term forecasts. No one knows when the current storm is going to pass, according to Ciovacco. "Take the forecast and throw it in the trash bin," he said. "Pay attention to what's happening now and you won't go too far wrong."

FOX Business News


Ciovacco said money market fund managers apparently saw their competitors achieving higher yields using risky SIVs and felt they had to keep up. "Everybody in that industry is looking for a creative way to get that yield up," he said. Ciovacco, while cautioning against panic, said he'll be keeping his eye out for more banks setting aside money to secure their money market funds. "There's no reason to get nervous yet," he said. "When I'd get more concerned -- and there is valid reason to keep this on your radar -- would be if there is an increase in the incidence of banks and fund managers stepping in to secure these funds. More importantly, if we actually start to see them fail. If somebody fails, then it's time to worry."

FOX Business News


These quotes relate to past market conditions and may not represent CCM's current view or outlook. They are provided for illustrative purposes only.

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All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Investment recommendations may change and readers are urged to check with tax advisors before making any investment decisions. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. This memorandum is based on information available to the public. No representation is made that it is accurate or complete. This memorandum is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. The investments discussed or recommended in this report may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial position. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. The price or value of the investments to which this report relates, either directly or indirectly, may fall or rise against the interest of investors. All prices and yields contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This information is based on hypothetical assumptions and is intended for illustrative purposes only. PAST PERFORMANCE DOES NOT GUARANTEE FUTURE RESULTS.