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As independent money managers, we provide long-term wealth and estate preservation strategies and prudent investment advice in a challenging environment for investors. If you are looking for an asset manager or money manager who adjusts investment allocations to align with present market conditions, Ciovacco Capital Management may be a good fit for you.

CCM Market Model - Stock Market Model - Ciovacco Capital - Atlanta

CCM Market Model - Stock Market Model - Ciovacco Capital - Atlanta

Objective: The model was designed to answer the following questions:
  1. How much should I allocate to risk assets?
  2. How much should I allocate to more conservative assets?
  3. What are the most attractive risk assets?
  4. What are the most attractive conservative assets?
Risk assets include stocks, commodities, silver, etc. More conservative assets include bonds, currencies, gold, hedges, etc.

About The CCM Market Model

Methodology Step One: Determine portfolio's allocation to more conservative assets and growth-oriented assets. The CCM Market Model uses input from five proprietary sub-models providing a form of allocation redundancy. The final allocation is determined via a weighted average from the five distinct sources. This weighted average approach provides a more robust methodology, enabling the model to handle a much wider variety of market conditions. The weighted average approach also reduces the probability of curve fitting.

CCM Market Model Methodology

Market Exposure: The market model allocates between more conservative assets, such as bonds, and more growth-oriented assets, such as foreign and domestic stocks. The most common ETFs selected by the model include, but are not limited to:
  • SPY - S&P 500
  • EFA - Foreign stocks
  • EEM - Emerging markets
  • IWM - Small caps
  • QQQ - Technology
  • XLP - Consumer staples
  • GLD - Gold
  • IEF - Intermediate-term Treasuries
  • TLT - Long-term Treasury
  • AGG - Aggregate bond market
  • SH - Short S&P 500*
* = Under specific and well-defined conditions, the model can select to hedge or go short using SH (short S&P 500) or similar hedging/short ETFs.

Methodology Step Two: Compare alternatives in each allocation category (conservative & growth-oriented) head-to-head using a proprietary trend-following methodology. For example, in the growth-oriented category, small caps are compared to all other options. The least attractive alternatives are eliminated allowing the model to focus on the strongest areas of the global markets.

Trend Following Model - Money Manager

Model Portfolios: The most conservative of the three options, the CCM Moderate Growth Model, limits exposure to higher beta assets. The CCM Growth and Aggressive Growth Models allow for greater exposure to higher beta assets, such as gold, small caps, and emerging markets.

Trend Following Model - Money Manager

2007-2009 Example: Was it possible to see something was changing after stocks peaked in October 2007? Yes, there were many ways to monitor the shift from risk-on to risk-off. The chart below shows the ratio of bonds-to-stocks on top with the S&P 500 below. In mid-June 2008, with the S&P 500 trading at 1360, the weekly trend clearly shifted in favor of bonds over stocks. This is one example of the inputs used in the CCM Market Model.

Trend Following Model - Money Manager

2008 Warning Before Stocks Dropped 51%: The text below is from a February 2008 article, which was published when the S&P 500 was trading at 1367. The S&P 500 eventually bottomed at 666 in March 2009. The point is the methods used in the CCM Market Model add value and can help protect your hard-earned principle.
Based on recent technical breakdowns in many risk-based investments, the probability of investors incurring additional losses over an extended period of time has increased. Both the technical and fundamental outlook now favor bearish outcomes over bullish outcomes.
Example Of Observable Shift: This 2009 article outlined obervable improvment in the market's risk-reward profile. The June 2009 table below allows you to visualize the basic concepts used in the market model.

CCM Market Model Methodology

Warning In 2000: This August 2013 article, Stocks, Bonds, or Short? The Million Dollar Question, expands on the concepts used in the market model and covers an example from the 2000-2002 bear market in stocks.

Reviews/Feedback: This feedback page, contains public comments made via Twitter concerning Ciovacco Capital's stock market analysis, market model, weekly videos, and charts ..

Model Inputs: The CCM Equity Step-In and CCM Equity Step-Out Models were created using historical data from the CCM Bull Market Sustainability Index (BMSI) and CCM 80-20 Correction Index (80-20). The CCM Market Risk Model (MRM) is also an integral piece of the CCM Market Model.

Ciovacco Capital Management Market Model

No Need To Forecast: This video segment compares forecasting the outcome of a football game to stock market forecasting. The second portion of the clip shows specific examples of the CCM Market Model in action during bull and bear markets, where it is not necessary to forecast anything.

The Market Does Not Care What I Think: This October 2013 article describes how asset prices are set and how personal opinions factor into that process. See the Facebook example in the article.

Easy To Understand Concepts: This October 2013 article covers the important concepts of thinking in probabilities, developing an IF-THEN system, monitoring the big picture, and flexibility.

Additional Resources:

Stock Market Blog By Chris Ciovacco of Ciovacco Capital

Chris Ciovacco is the Chief Investment Officer for Ciovacco Capital Management, LLC. More on the web at www.ciovaccocapital.com

Terms of Use. The performance information presented in certain charts or tables represent backtested performance from December 31, 2002 to the period ending date shown, using the model to select ETFs and to rebalance the portfolio. Backtested performance is hypothetical (it does not reflect trading in actual accounts) and is provided for informational purposes only to indicate historical performance had the model portfolios been available over the relevant time period. CCM did not offer the model portfolios until July 2013. Backtested performance does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of such performance. Backtested performance results have inherent limitations, some of which are described herein. Backtested returns do not represent the performance results of actual trading and are calculated through the retroactive application of the Adviser's model portfolio configuration, designed with the benefit of hindsight. Since backtested performance results do not represent actual trading, they may not reflect the impact that material economic and market factors might have had on the decision-making of the Adviser, if the Adviser was actually managing the client assets. No representation is being made that the Adviser's strategy will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently significant material differences between back-tested performance results and performance results subsequently achieved by following a particular strategy. In addition, backtested performance does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of backtested performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results. The back-tested performance results shown reflect the deduction of: (i) an average annual asset management fee of 0.81%; and (ii) estimated transaction fees and other expenses that a client would experience. The results portrayed reflect the reinvestment of dividends, interest and other income, as appropriate. Backtested performance results assume weekly rebalancing at the end of each week. It is important to understand that the assumption of weekly rebalancing has an impact on the annual and weekly returns shown. For weekly rebalancing, the weekly return is calculated with the assumption that the portfolio is perfectly in balance at the beginning of each week. In actual portfolios, however, rebalancing occurs at no set time, and such actions are dependent on both market conditions and individual client liquidity inflows and outflows, along with the cost impact of such transactions on the overall portfolio. As with any investment strategy, there is potential for profit as well as the possibility of loss. CCM does not guarantee any minimum level of investment performance or the success of any client account, model portfolio, or investment strategy. All investments involve risk and investment recommendations will not always be profitable. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Backtested results do not guarantee future results. Results are compared to the performance of the S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY) for informational purposes only. The Adviser's investment program does not mirror the S&P 500 Index and the volatility of the Adviser's investment program may be materially different. The securities or other instruments included in the S&P 500 Index are not necessarily included in the Adviser's portfolio and criteria for inclusion in the S&P 500 Index are different than those for investment by the Adviser. The performance of the S&P 500 Index ETF was obtained from published sources believed to be reliable, but which are not warranted as to accuracy or completeness. Unless noted otherwise, the returns of indices presented herein do not reflect fees or transaction costs, nor net dividends, if any. A description of each index follows: The S&P 500 Index, a diversified index that includes the stocks of 500 U.S. listed, large capitalization companies in major industries. All references to SPY are to the total return form of the ETF. Past performance, including hypothetical past performance, is not indicative of future performance. There can be no assurance that the Adviser will achieve its objectives. Any performance information, market analysis or data or other information is not warranted by Ciovacco Capital Management, LLC (CCM or Ciovacco Capital) as to completeness or accuracy express or implied, and such information is subject to change without notice. CCM's investment strategies may change from time to time based on market condition and enhancements to its investment methods and strategy without further notice. This website and the information contained herein are for informational purposes only and do not constitute a complete description of our investment services, funds or strategies. The data in this website have been prepared by CCM and have not been reviewed, compiled or audited by an independent public accountant. The views expressed on this website represent the current, good faith views of the authors at the time of publication. Please be aware that these views are subject to change at any time and without notice of any kind. CCM assumes no duty and does not undertake to update these views or any forward-looking statements, which are subject to numerous assumptions, risks, and uncertainties, which change over time. All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. The information contained herein (including historical prices or values) has been obtained from sources that Ciovacco Capital Management (CCM) considers to be reliable; however, CCM makes no representation as to, or accepts any responsibility or liability for, the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein or any decision made or action taken by you or any third party in reliance upon the data. Some results are derived using historical estimations from available data. Readers are urged to check with tax advisors before making any investment decisions. This memorandum is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. The investments discussed or recommended in this report may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial position. The price or value of the investments to which this report relates, either directly or indirectly, may fall or rise against the interest of investors. All prices and yields contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This information is based on hypothetical assumptions and is intended for illustrative purposes only. PAST PERFORMANCE DOES NOT GUARANTEE FUTURE RESULTS.