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Short Takes

Independent Money Manager Atlanta, GA
Reflation Supported By Stocks, Commodities, and Oil
October 16, 2009

Last week in Gold, Recessions, Bonds, and 1987, we stated the following:

  • A major objective of all the money printing, government intervention, and low interest rates is to create positive inflation, which includes asset price inflation.
  • Asset inflation helps heal sick balance sheets and repairs a portion of the lost "wealth effect".
  • When gold lies dormant, it means reflation is not working all that well in the minds of market participants. Gold's recent breakout may indicate that in the minds of market particiapants reflation of assets is working. That mind set results from the fear of future inflation caused by money printing, intervention, etc.

Crude oil also can lend support to the relation case as market participants look for ways to protect purchasing power and profit from slowly improving fundamentals. Regardless of whether or not crude oil can hold the recent breakout as of the close Friday (10/15/09), the primary trend for oil will remain up.

Oil's Move Is Good For Reflation Assets

The CRB Index is a basket of commodities including, but not limited to, copper, sugar, heating oil, wheat, live cattle, crude oil, platinum, natural gas, and soybeans. The CRB Index also experienced a breakout this week contributing to bullish reflation trends evident across many markets.

CRB's Move Is Good For Reflation Assets

Stock Market Remains Healthy

On Friday, the S&P 500 will be trying to hold above its 89-week moving average (green line in chart below). As of Thursday's close the 89-week stood at 1,066.83. As you can see in the spring of 2008, the 89-week acted as resistance. A sustained break above 1,066 would provide some support for the current bull market (resistance becomes support).

Stocks - Still A Bull Market 2009

Expecting More Of The Same Also Involves Risk Management

We often say:

We will expect to see more of the same (bullish trends, higher highs, and normal corrections), until we see significant evidence to the contrary.

We did not become bullish earlier this year because we do not understand the problems of the day. The market became bullish. When we observed evidence contradicting the formally bearish trends, we became bullish. We remain bullish, but maintain a fairly high degree of uneasiness and skepticism regarding a sustained long-term bull market. We are concerned about valuations, especially if earnings do not materialize and as we move closer to 1,200 on the S&P 500. We are also concerned about banks and looming problems with commercial real estate. We are monitoring market sentiment looking for excessive acceptance of a new bull market. We are concerned about excess capacity throughout the economy (from hotel rooms in Vegas to condos in Miami). As a result, all markets need to be monitored closely. There is a fine line between staying with a profitable trend and ignoring clearly bearish signals. At the present time, we do not see many bearish signals, but in the long-run it pays to be aware of what could go wrong even while things are going right. For now, the bulls remain in control of almost all markets. We expect more of the same until we see something different (bullish trends, higher highs, and normal corrections).

Investments or strategies described above may be inappropriate for some investors based on their own individual situation and risk tolerance.

Chris Ciovacco
Ciovacco Capital Management

Atlanta Independent Money Management Atlanta


Chris Ciovacco is the Chief Investment Officer for Ciovacco Capital Management, LLC. More on the web at www.ciovaccocapital.com

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