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Ciovacco Capital Management, LLC is an independent money management firm based in Atlanta, Georgia. CCM helps individual investors, large & small; achieve improved investment results via research and globally diversified investment portfolios. Since we are a fee-based firm, our only objective is to help you protect and grow your assets. Our long-term, theme-oriented, buy-and-hold approach allows for portfolio rebalancing from time to time to adjust to new opportunities or changing market conditions.


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"People need to be realistic about U.S. stock market returns over the next ten or so years. The fact that they've averaged 10%-11% over the 20th century is a bit misleading. Instead, we've had 35-year long cycles, incorporating 17-18 years of 18%-20% average annual returns along with 17-18 years of 2%-4% average returns. We're now in that bad cycle from 2000-2017 or so. In essence, we borrowed returns during the good times from 1983 to 2000. We are in for 10 more rough years. My advice is to be proactive, and to look to foreign markets, commodities, or - if you have a really trusted manager – try an alternative investment strategy. A buy and hold strategy that worked well over most of the recent past will work poorly in this environment. People don’t realize that we have long stretches of good and bad markets, but we do."

Tom Au - April 2008 - Chief Economist with the Wentworth China Fund, a NY-based investment advisor, and the author of A Modern Approach to Graham and Dodd Investing - SOURCE: Advisor Perspectives.

Valuations In U.S. Remain A Concern For The Long-Term Investor:

  • In March 2007, Dr. John Hussman wrote, "As a refresher of where the earnings picture stands at present, note that S&P 500 earnings have now slightly exceeded their long-term 6% growth trendline, while profit margins are about 50% above the norm (i.e. an earnings trendline about 33% lower would run through the middle of the data). From an historical perspective, this is about as good as it gets once earnings have become similarly elevated, one has generally been able to find a point years later where earnings have achieved zero growth from that peak."

  • A top-ranked mutual fund manager calculates that the S&P 500 is between 36% and 52% overvalued, based on historical norms, as of September 9, 2005. If you are skeptical, you can see the analysis by clicking here

  • Another recent study (Q1 2005), based on sound fundamental and histoical factors concluded:

    "Presently, the likely range of S&P 500 annual total returns for the coming decade is in the 2-3% range based on average and median scenarios, with outside possibilities as low as -3% in the very bearish case and still less than 8% in the very bullish case." entire study results

  • "If you've got all your dough invested in stocks, and it's all the dough you're ever going to make, think twice. Then think three times. Both theory and historical evidence are against the proposition that stocks will be a very rewarding investment for long-term investors committing a lump-sum to the stock market at current prices. It's a point I've made often in recent months, but I can't imagine how it could be over-emphasized ."

    Dr. John Hussmam

Misconception: Many think that as long as corporate earnings are increasing that stocks will go up right along with them. History paints a much different picture. Why? Because PE ratios decline in secular bear markets, earnings can increase for years and stocks can still go down (or sideways). If you use the information from the article below, a quick estimate gives some sobering projections. Let's assume that you take the current PE ratio and current earnings and project them out to 2016 assuming the following: (1) Corporate earnings on average increase at 6% per year (not bad), and (2) PE ratios follow the historical path of mean reversion and decline to levels typically found at the end of a secular (long) bear market. Even with earnings gorwing at 6% per year for the next ten years, historical PE compression would mean stocks would decline roughly 37% 2006 levels. Look at the results of the PE study in this article by Bronson Capital Markets Research:

PE Study & Projection

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